Business Boomed. Hiring Went Backward.
Service-sector input costs hit a four-year high in the same August report where employment contracted for the fifth time in six months.
The Long Horizon
Latest issues
Financial events translated into path intelligence for long-term capital.
Business Boomed. Hiring Went Backward.
Service-sector input costs hit a four-year high in the same August report where employment contracted for the fifth time in six months.
Companies are paying more and selling less
Input prices held at 71.1 in August while new orders fell to 53.7, and corporate margins are where those two numbers meet.
The bond market stopped paying for time
A thirty-year Treasury now pays one basis point more than a twenty-year, which is the market's price for a decade of your patience.
Inflation is 3.7%. And also 2.3%.
Both are official July readings. The higher one is what your indexed holdings get paid on.
The Fed just unpublished its rate path
Two-year yields jumped to 4.34% on Friday. The thirty-year barely moved, and that gap is the whole message.
The economy grew 1.5%. Profits grew $400 billion.
One of those numbers made the headlines, and the other one is what your portfolio actually owns.
Your grandchild's new account has a 0.1% fee ceiling. Yours doesn't.
Treasury just mandated a fee cap on a brand new account type, and nothing in your own portfolio is required to match it.
Your mortgage is outperforming the house it bought
Home prices rose 1.5% against 3.5% inflation, and the loan is the only part of that trade that won.
The number setting your retirement cost is not the Fed's
Energy ran 14.7% while core held at 2.5%, and the gap between them decides what the Fed does next.
The best real yield since 2001 just landed on the path
What a 2.973% real yield does to a fifteen-year horizon, and where it has to be held to survive tax.
The Richest Portfolios Are Built Around Control
Long-term wealth improves when investors know which parts of their plan they can actually govern.
Think in years