The Fed's own projections put a price on cash. The TIPS market pays more.
Last Wednesday's projections imply roughly 1.2% after inflation on cash, while a ten-year TIPS pays 2.68%.
The Long Horizon
Latest issues
Financial events translated into path intelligence for long-term capital.
Most of the next boom is already built.
American industry ran at 76.3% of capacity in August. The average since 1972 is 3.1 points higher.
Treasuries didn't move. Mortgages did.
The 30-year fixed rate rose 19 basis points to 6.95%. The ten-year Treasury finished the week one basis point lower.
Where does the Fed think this ends?
The target range was raised a quarter point, unanimously. The projections now run to 2029 without reaching the long-run rate.
Tuesday's bond auction went badly.
Foreign and indirect bidders took 52.5%, a record low. Twenty-year money now costs Treasury more than thirty-year.
Americans got richer without saving.
Household net worth rose $12.8 trillion last quarter. Deposits fell, and equity revaluation supplied $10.7 trillion of the gain.
The number that pays didn't ease.
Core eased to 2.4% in August. All items held at 3.4%, and that is the one indexed holdings pay on.
The big number today is yesterday's.
Producer prices ran 5.4% over the year. Trillions in contracts escalate off that index.
Three cents. That's your employer's share.
Health insurance costs more than twice that. The two lines are funded from one budget.
The longer car loan is now the cheaper one
Every year since 2023 said the opposite. The card rate, meanwhile, went up.
Treasury is buying the bonds it's selling
The size doubles Wednesday. What matters is which bonds get bought, not how many.
The Fed's dove set a test. Friday failed it.
Chris Waller said he could support holding rates if the incoming data cooperated, and the next morning payrolls came in at nearly three times trend.
Think in years